Pak-US Relationship After PM Imran Khan And President Trump Meeting Based On Dynamic Process Models
The US and Pakistan have a long history of relationship – an undulating wave of close partnership and divorce. The Pakistan PM will visit and meet US President Trump on July 22. Will this meeting establish new stronger connectivity between both countries? Pakistan media is fully engaged to assess through different experts, US businessmen and former diplomats. For example, in one programme at national news channel in which senior figures from Pakistan’s bureaucracy and business were invited, a journalist tried to ask technical questions to get a final predictive or professional assessment about the success or failures regarding this meeting. The views were ambiguous points of view with no clear direction. One of them assessed 50-50 chances of success that equals almost to no verdict at all, while the other was little positive without providing concrete, logical inputs.
In many cases what our Pakistani public is exposed to is still a political myth; we are at best vague about the future of relationship between the two countries.
There are two ways through which we can predict or assess the success rate of this meeting – either through a traditional experts/think tanks-based approach or with new methods.
My expertise of process science application through Dynamic Process Model, though have been very successful when applied in complex problems like radicalisation, threat analysis, cognitive mapping and policy formation etc, it can equally can be useful in each and every aspect of life because every act and affair of this life is a process.
A well-known journalist requested me to comment on this US-Pak relationship with reference to this meeting of Prime minister Imran Khan and President Trump within the radar of dynamic process model of the two countries. Here are my two cents.
The US-Pak relationship as a dynamic process of relationship has been highly complex, in which many variables support and many disqualify the relationship: While the facts that Pakistan has been the best friend of US during Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and the US front line partner during the war on terror are historic truths; at the same time a very stringent and tough stance against Pakistan from US is also well known. These dynamic transitions are not only because of transitions at geopolitical environment but also depend on the political leadership, establishment, state and deep state organs of each and every country.
No doubt the US has its own important role for world stability and Pakistan has its own geographical importance, both countries have their own interests, ideas and desires. Based on Dynamic Process Model to equate these interests, ideas and desires, we have to look into running variables and identify each and every variable as a driver of the process through indicators to conclude the dynamic flow to project output results of a process in X time. It must be added that if variables are not comprehensive, surely results predicted or projected cannot be correct.
This meeting, based on the below mentioned variables, I assume would be a success. Few master variables will be dominant: US Army withdrawal from Afghanistan; peace in Afghanistan (albeit subject to security of some vital interest of US in Afghanistan). Another variable, the US energy, oil gas and few other companies to play a progressive role in the region including Exxon US has invested almost $100 bn in Afghanistan. American business interests in Pakistan are also very strong. Cargill plans to invest $200 million in Pakistan. Another variable is the US desire to start an inclusive active role in the Gulf region in terms of developing and sharing long term business.
I opine that the agenda of this meeting would be more business-oriented rather than political. Efforts would be made to find common ground between the countries.
We can hope that the meeting would be a success based on the contemporary situation, running variables, system-dynamic and mind-sets of both leaders. The US and Pakistan will have a much realistic and operational relationship. Some important, valuable agreements will be announced to achieve the above mentioned common interests and desires.