WEBDESK - NAYADAUR
Lebanon is once again confronting the prospect of a broader war as Israeli strikes continue across the country’s south, Hezbollah refuses to surrender its weapons while Israeli forces remain on Lebanese territory, and a fragile ceasefire shows growing signs of strain.
In Nabatieh, a city near the Israeli border that has suffered extensive destruction during years of fighting, Israeli drones have become a near-constant presence in the skies. Residents face the unsettling reality that the ceasefire has neither ended military activity nor restored a sense of security.
Recent strikes have killed 12 people, including two children, according to authorities cited in the analysis, intensifying fears of a renewed escalation between Israel and Hezbollah. The latest violence comes after months of conflict that have already displaced hundreds of thousands of Lebanese.
The current crisis is closely tied to the wider confrontation between Israel, the United States and Iran. After a joint U.S.-Israeli operation killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in February, Hezbollah launched rockets toward northern Israel, ending a ceasefire that had followed 14 months of intense fighting.
Israel responded with a major military campaign, including a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. Israeli forces now occupy about 6% of Lebanese territory in what Israel describes as a security zone designed to protect its northern communities from Hezbollah attacks.
The military campaign has left large parts of southern Lebanon devastated. Villages have been subjected to airstrikes, artillery fire and demolitions, while more than 300,000 Lebanese remain displaced.
Human rights groups and Lebanese authorities have raised concerns that the scale and nature of destruction could violate international law. Human Rights Watch researcher Ramzi Kaiss described some affected communities as effectively “ghost towns,” saying that the destruction of homes and essential infrastructure could make it impossible for residents to return for years.
Israel rejects allegations that it deliberately targets civilians. The Israel Defense Forces says it conducts operations against Hezbollah military targets and takes feasible precautions to reduce harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure.
The human cost has been staggering.
More than 4,000 Lebanese have been killed during the conflict this year, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between fighters and civilians. The toll includes more than 600 women and children, at least nine journalists and more than 130 health workers.
Two Israeli civilians and 36 Israeli soldiers have also been killed in combat in Lebanon this year, according to the analysis.
Among those affected are Lebanon’s volunteer emergency responders. Mohamed Suleiman, a volunteer paramedic in Nabatieh, lost his 16-year-old son Joud in an Israeli airstrike in March. Suleiman says Joud was delivering food to volunteer paramedics when he was killed and insists that his son was clearly a civilian.
The IDF said the strike targeted “terrorist operatives,” but, according to the analysis, it did not provide evidence to substantiate the claim despite repeated requests. Weeks later, one of Suleiman’s fellow paramedics was also killed while responding to an emergency.
The hardest question: Who controls Lebanon’s weapons?
The path toward peace is now increasingly tied to one deeply divisive issue: Hezbollah’s armed presence.
A U.S.-brokered framework agreement reached in June seeks to end the conflict and ultimately disarm Hezbollah. But the proposal faces a fundamental obstacle.
Hezbollah says it will not surrender its weapons while Israeli forces remain on Lebanese territory. The group argues that it needs guarantees that Israel will not launch another invasion once it disarms.
Israel, meanwhile, maintains that its military presence is necessary to protect its northern communities from Hezbollah attacks.
The Lebanese government has taken the unprecedented step of banning Hezbollah’s militant and security activities after the group resumed fighting with Israel. But the government faces a difficult balancing act: asserting state authority while preventing the dispute over Hezbollah’s weapons from triggering another internal crisis.
Former Lebanese intelligence chief Abbas Ibrahim has warned that tensions surrounding Hezbollah’s disarmament could spill onto the streets and lead to clashes between different sections of Lebanese society.
Other Lebanese political leaders argue that disarmament is essential to restoring the state’s authority. Former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora says Lebanon cannot secure the withdrawal of Israeli forces while Hezbollah remains an independent armed force.
Hezbollah rejects that argument, maintaining that it is a Lebanese political party and armed resistance movement defending the country.
A ceasefire without peace
For Lebanon’s civilians, the diplomatic debate is overshadowed by a much simpler demand: an end to the war and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.
Yet neither side appears willing to make the concession the other considers essential.
Israel wants Hezbollah’s military capability neutralized. Hezbollah refuses to disarm while Israeli forces remain. Lebanon’s government wants to restore state authority but has limited ability to impose a settlement on either side.
That leaves Lebanon caught between a fragile ceasefire and the possibility of renewed full-scale fighting.
The country has already endured widespread displacement, destroyed homes, damaged infrastructure and thousands of deaths. Another escalation could deepen a crisis that Lebanon’s government is struggling to control.
For the people living closest to the fighting, the uncertainty is perhaps the most painful part.
As one volunteer paramedic put it after watching strikes hit the southern Lebanese landscape, the hope is that the next visit will be to see how people live — rather than how they die.