When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, we can certainly sense some danger ahead. China and the United States are currently on the collision course for war – unless both parties take difficult and painful actions to avert it,” wrote Dr. Graham T. Allison, Director of Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, in his 2017 bestseller, “Destined for War: America, China, and Thucydides’ Trap”.
He called this phenomenon, a Thucydides’ Trap. He argued that this phenomenon is applied to an insecurity paranoia between a rising power and an accepted and established dominant power, where the result is almost always conflict. Thucydides was an Athenian historian and general during the 5th century BCE, who wrote the history of Peloponnesian wars which, in the end, destroyed the whole Greek cultural advantages over other nations. Thucydides’ “History of the Peloponnesian War” recounts the 5th century BCE war between Sparta and Athens.
Thucydides claimed that there must be applied strict standards of evidence gatherings and critical analysis of cause and effects without any reference to intervention by gods – as was the case in ancient Greece.
To understand China’s ambitions, one has to look at history. Chinese history can be divided into phases: the era when different dynasties ruled the country, and its growth as a huge power during the Ming’s Dynasty. The subsequent downfall and then came the era of humiliation in which China was pushed back and it was coerced by other big powers. Finally, the Communist revolution and its aftermath in which the country was pushed into the Cultural Revolution and after that its integration in the World’s economy.
And now we are witnessing the Belt-and-Road Initiative (B&RI) and aggressive diplomacy after the COVID-19. Let’s briefly look into these phases.
The Mongols Yuan dynasty (1279-1368) ruled over China when the Great Kublai Khan – grandson of Genghis Khan – conquered China in 1279. But as they entrenched into the power their empire got weaker and due to the long span of prosperity, the Mongols became laid back and overconfident. In 1352, when a terrible flood had struck parts of China they were unable to handle the people’s reaction to the widespread diseases and deaths. The Yellow River waters submerged huge areas of farmland and eradicated them. The widespread famine and diseases caused by the flood incited the uprising among the peasants around Guangzhou on the Pearl River delta, who were already impatient because of the accesses of the Mongol warlords.
In 1368, leader of the uprising, Zhu Yuanzhang entered the Mongol empire capital Ta-tu (now Beijing) and forced the Mongol emperor Toughen Temur to flee from the capital. The uprising leader Zhu Yuanzhang proclaimed the Ming dynasty – and declared himself as the first emperor of the dynasty.
Until the 9th century AD, the Chinese fleets which traveled outside its maritime boundaries were mostly the foreign-made ship. However, after the 9th century, the ships were built inside China. The Song dynasty (960-1279) and Mongol Yuan dynasty (1279-1368) maintained their fleets and built substantial foreign trade. The third Ming Emperor, Zhu Di – the younger son of Zhu Yuanzhang, who snatched the power from his nephew, Zhu Yunwan in 1402 and moved the capital from Nanjing to Beijing – set his goal to create – what even the great Kublai Khan had failed to achieve – a maritime empire which would be spanning to vast oceans. He began to expand the Chinese fleet by adding – in the fleet of trade and warships he inherited – 1,681 new ships, among them 250, 9-masted treasure ships. In addition to the treasure ships, the fleet contained 1,350 patrol ships and the same number of small warships that were docked on the guard stations and the island bases. Besides that, the fleet also contained 400 large warships and another 400 freighters which were used to transport horses, food, and water for the crew members.
With the huge fleet and technology, Zhu Di decided to mount lavish maritime expeditions to overwhelm the other empires by the Ming power. He chose his most trusted man – a devout Muslim and eunuch – Zhang He for this special purpose. Admiral Zheng He fleets visited Java, Thailand, Brunei, Southeast Asia, India, Africa, and Arabia. He presented to different rules the gifts like silk, Chinese porcelain, gold, and silver and received the gifts from them and brought to China. However, according to a bestseller by Gavin Menzie — a British author and retired submarine lieutenant-commander — Admiral Zheng He went to as far as Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and North and South America on his 6th voyage in 1421. Some historians disagree with this account of Menzies’s narration.
After the Forbidden City lightening incident, mandarins, who used to run the finance, economy, home ministry, and law and order, who were tolerating Zhu Di just because he was powerful and had the strong support of masses, began to exploit the opportunity to further weaken the emperor. Zhu Di died while he was in the pursuit of a Mongol leader. After Zhu Di, the shipyard was decommissioned and the populations were moved inland – away from the coastal area. All the records of voyages of Admiral Zhang He were destroyed and the admirals who led the long journeys in vast oceans were humiliated.
To be continued..
He called this phenomenon, a Thucydides’ Trap. He argued that this phenomenon is applied to an insecurity paranoia between a rising power and an accepted and established dominant power, where the result is almost always conflict. Thucydides was an Athenian historian and general during the 5th century BCE, who wrote the history of Peloponnesian wars which, in the end, destroyed the whole Greek cultural advantages over other nations. Thucydides’ “History of the Peloponnesian War” recounts the 5th century BCE war between Sparta and Athens.
Thucydides claimed that there must be applied strict standards of evidence gatherings and critical analysis of cause and effects without any reference to intervention by gods – as was the case in ancient Greece.
To understand China’s ambitions, one has to look at history. Chinese history can be divided into phases: the era when different dynasties ruled the country, and its growth as a huge power during the Ming’s Dynasty. The subsequent downfall and then came the era of humiliation in which China was pushed back and it was coerced by other big powers. Finally, the Communist revolution and its aftermath in which the country was pushed into the Cultural Revolution and after that its integration in the World’s economy.
And now we are witnessing the Belt-and-Road Initiative (B&RI) and aggressive diplomacy after the COVID-19. Let’s briefly look into these phases.
The Mongols Yuan dynasty (1279-1368) ruled over China when the Great Kublai Khan – grandson of Genghis Khan – conquered China in 1279. But as they entrenched into the power their empire got weaker and due to the long span of prosperity, the Mongols became laid back and overconfident. In 1352, when a terrible flood had struck parts of China they were unable to handle the people’s reaction to the widespread diseases and deaths. The Yellow River waters submerged huge areas of farmland and eradicated them. The widespread famine and diseases caused by the flood incited the uprising among the peasants around Guangzhou on the Pearl River delta, who were already impatient because of the accesses of the Mongol warlords.
In 1368, leader of the uprising, Zhu Yuanzhang entered the Mongol empire capital Ta-tu (now Beijing) and forced the Mongol emperor Toughen Temur to flee from the capital. The uprising leader Zhu Yuanzhang proclaimed the Ming dynasty – and declared himself as the first emperor of the dynasty.
Until the 9th century AD, the Chinese fleets which traveled outside its maritime boundaries were mostly the foreign-made ship. However, after the 9th century, the ships were built inside China. The Song dynasty (960-1279) and Mongol Yuan dynasty (1279-1368) maintained their fleets and built substantial foreign trade. The third Ming Emperor, Zhu Di – the younger son of Zhu Yuanzhang, who snatched the power from his nephew, Zhu Yunwan in 1402 and moved the capital from Nanjing to Beijing – set his goal to create – what even the great Kublai Khan had failed to achieve – a maritime empire which would be spanning to vast oceans. He began to expand the Chinese fleet by adding – in the fleet of trade and warships he inherited – 1,681 new ships, among them 250, 9-masted treasure ships. In addition to the treasure ships, the fleet contained 1,350 patrol ships and the same number of small warships that were docked on the guard stations and the island bases. Besides that, the fleet also contained 400 large warships and another 400 freighters which were used to transport horses, food, and water for the crew members.
With the huge fleet and technology, Zhu Di decided to mount lavish maritime expeditions to overwhelm the other empires by the Ming power. He chose his most trusted man – a devout Muslim and eunuch – Zhang He for this special purpose. Admiral Zheng He fleets visited Java, Thailand, Brunei, Southeast Asia, India, Africa, and Arabia. He presented to different rules the gifts like silk, Chinese porcelain, gold, and silver and received the gifts from them and brought to China. However, according to a bestseller by Gavin Menzie — a British author and retired submarine lieutenant-commander — Admiral Zheng He went to as far as Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and North and South America on his 6th voyage in 1421. Some historians disagree with this account of Menzies’s narration.
After the Forbidden City lightening incident, mandarins, who used to run the finance, economy, home ministry, and law and order, who were tolerating Zhu Di just because he was powerful and had the strong support of masses, began to exploit the opportunity to further weaken the emperor. Zhu Di died while he was in the pursuit of a Mongol leader. After Zhu Di, the shipyard was decommissioned and the populations were moved inland – away from the coastal area. All the records of voyages of Admiral Zhang He were destroyed and the admirals who led the long journeys in vast oceans were humiliated.
To be continued..