Based on a recent model developed by a group of experts, Smart Lockdown has been suggested which is based on an "adaptive cyclic exit strategies" to "suppress COVID-19 and allow economic activity." The model proposes a two-week schedule.
People are beginning to show signs of mental illness, fatigue and restlessness. The economy, already strangulated by the IMF, is heading towards close to zero to negative growth. Can we afford to go on indefinitely like this? Pakistan has been struggling with 'lockdown paradox' , as PIDE' bulletin-2 put it, since the very first incidence of the coronavirus cases months ago. Impose complete lockdown, shut everything and risk people dying of starvation or do not shut the country and risk viral spread of the virus. In between a complete lockdown and a partial one, a new and smarter policy option has been proposed i.e. Smart Lockdown.
At the moment, people are at least better prepared- with a few quarantines made, some testing ability and medical equipment collected and relief packages for the vulnerable and small businesses in place, noted a new report by PIDE. As the PM has been repeatedly saying: we are faced with a tough choice. In between the hard option, curfew, and softer one, partial to minimal lockdowns, there has emerged a third viable option:
“In this way, the virus replication number, i.e., the number of people infected by each infectious person, drops below one – the magic number that causes the epidemic to decline."
With a staggered/rotational duty of employees some level of productivity, though reduced, can be achieved. Even if someone gets infected on Day-1 of the cycle, their peak infection period would be during the lockdown days, reducing the number of secondary infections.
So, it is not as if there will be no lockdown, but it will need to track and isolate the infection.
Pakistan can opt for a much adapted version of the Smart Lockdown with mandatory use of mask and gloves. Keeping those who can work remotely/from home, continuing to do so (education) All big firms, of every kind- service or manufacturing, would plan for a two-week work schedule while certain protocols would be issued by the government and violators would be heavily fined/punished.
People are beginning to show signs of mental illness, fatigue and restlessness. The economy, already strangulated by the IMF, is heading towards close to zero to negative growth. Can we afford to go on indefinitely like this? Pakistan has been struggling with 'lockdown paradox' , as PIDE' bulletin-2 put it, since the very first incidence of the coronavirus cases months ago. Impose complete lockdown, shut everything and risk people dying of starvation or do not shut the country and risk viral spread of the virus. In between a complete lockdown and a partial one, a new and smarter policy option has been proposed i.e. Smart Lockdown.
At the moment, people are at least better prepared- with a few quarantines made, some testing ability and medical equipment collected and relief packages for the vulnerable and small businesses in place, noted a new report by PIDE. As the PM has been repeatedly saying: we are faced with a tough choice. In between the hard option, curfew, and softer one, partial to minimal lockdowns, there has emerged a third viable option:
Perhaps it is time to consider a Smart Lockdown - A cyclic schedule of 4-day work and 10-day lockdown, or similar variants, can, in certain conditions, suppress the epidemic while providing part-time employment. The cycle reduces the reproduction number R (the number of people an affected person affects) by a combination of reduced exposure time and an anti-phasing effect.
“In this way, the virus replication number, i.e., the number of people infected by each infectious person, drops below one – the magic number that causes the epidemic to decline."
With a staggered/rotational duty of employees some level of productivity, though reduced, can be achieved. Even if someone gets infected on Day-1 of the cycle, their peak infection period would be during the lockdown days, reducing the number of secondary infections.
So, it is not as if there will be no lockdown, but it will need to track and isolate the infection.
Pakistan can opt for a much adapted version of the Smart Lockdown with mandatory use of mask and gloves. Keeping those who can work remotely/from home, continuing to do so (education) All big firms, of every kind- service or manufacturing, would plan for a two-week work schedule while certain protocols would be issued by the government and violators would be heavily fined/punished.