Regarding the Labor predicament, PIDE COVID-19 Bulletin has identified the vulnerable employment in Pakistan across different sectors and estimated the number that is potentially facing being laid off under different scenarios of a shutdown.
Agriculture is the most vulnerable sector in the KP province, whereas the share of vulnerable employment in manufacturing and wholesale and retail sectors is highest in Baluchistan. Likewise, the share of vulnerable employment in hospitality sector is highest in Punjab. Interestingly, the construction sector has the least vulnerable employment among all the sectors.
When it comes to the number of layoffs, the situation is not encouraging.The majority of the layoffs across all provinces would be of the daily-wage workers and the workers paid by piece rate. The figures are scary; 4.1m in KPK, 22.4m in Punjab, and 7.3m in Sindh while 1.4m people in Baluchistan classify under Vulnerable Employment.
The PIDE analysis shows that in Punjab alone 10 to 12 million of those who are vulnerably employed can face losing their jobs in Stages II (moderate shutdown) and stage III (complete shutdown), respectively. The same numbers for Sindh are 3.3 to 4.1 million, and around two million for KP and under a million for Balochistan. Therefore, any relief package for business sector to encourage them to retain their employees must take these factors into account. These packages should vary across provinces to prioritize the most vulnerable sectors in the province accordingly.
Agriculture is the most vulnerable sector in the KP province, whereas the share of vulnerable employment in manufacturing and wholesale and retail sectors is highest in Baluchistan. Likewise, the share of vulnerable employment in hospitality sector is highest in Punjab. Interestingly, the construction sector has the least vulnerable employment among all the sectors.
When it comes to the number of layoffs, the situation is not encouraging.The majority of the layoffs across all provinces would be of the daily-wage workers and the workers paid by piece rate. The figures are scary; 4.1m in KPK, 22.4m in Punjab, and 7.3m in Sindh while 1.4m people in Baluchistan classify under Vulnerable Employment.
The PIDE analysis shows that in Punjab alone 10 to 12 million of those who are vulnerably employed can face losing their jobs in Stages II (moderate shutdown) and stage III (complete shutdown), respectively. The same numbers for Sindh are 3.3 to 4.1 million, and around two million for KP and under a million for Balochistan. Therefore, any relief package for business sector to encourage them to retain their employees must take these factors into account. These packages should vary across provinces to prioritize the most vulnerable sectors in the province accordingly.