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Punjab Swing Vote Might Change Hands From PTI to PMLN: Roshan Opinion Polling

Photo Courtesy: Pakistan Today

An Islamabad based polling agency, Roshan Pakistan presented an electoral analysis of votes and constituency distribution amongst Pakistan in general and Punjab in particular.

In a detailed twitter thread, Roshan Pakistan stated,

“And while it’s absolutely psephologically illegal to project trends in some parts of a province on it overall if that 3% swing from PTI to PML(N) was to happen uniformly across all 141 constituencies in Punjab, 21 seats currently held by PTI would change hands to PML(N).”

The polling agency explained that,

“There were 28 NA seats won by under 3 percentage points in Punjab. Of these, PTI won 14, PML(N) 11. 20 of these 28 seats were direct contests between PTI and PML(N). These seats would be the first line of offense or defense for either parties at a future.”

The particular emphasis of Roshan`s analysis was the percentage of 3 or less where there was a cutting edge competition amongst the electoral competitors.

Roshan conducted a dummy poll in ten of the constituencies, five of PTI and the other half of PMLN. In these dummy polls, respondents were asked about a generic candidate. In almost all of the seats, the swing from either side was around five percent.

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An analysis by the agency explained how Sargodha can be of immense importance to PTI in the future. In another analysis, the constituency in question was Khanewal where PMLN now has a double-digit advantage.

The analysis was further conducted on Khanewal, Faisalabad, Lahore, and Hafizabad.

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