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Population Bomb: Pakistan’s Population to Reach 403m By 2050, Making It Fifth Most Populous Country Of the World

By the year 2050, there will be some 9.7 billion people living on Earth, says a UN population report released on Monday. However, the overall growth rate will continue to fall, and more countries will have to adapt to the consequences of an ageing population.

But most alarming thing in this report is that Pakistan will have a population of 403 million, making it fifth most populous country in the world by 2050.

The report says, “More than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just nine countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, the United Republic of Tanzania, and the United States of America.”

If ordered by the absolute increase in population, these countries are: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States of America.

Moreover, India is set to surpass China as the most populous country by 2027. “Disparate population growth rates among the world’s largest countries will re-order their ranking by size: for example, India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country around 2027.”

The report says the populations of both Pakistan and Nigeria more than doubled in size between 1990 and 2019, with Pakistan moving up in rank from the 8th to the 5th position and Nigeria from the 10th to the 7th position.

After this re-ordering between 2019 and 2050, the ranking of the five largest countries is projected to be preserved through the end of the century, when India could remain the world’s most populous country with nearly 1.5 billion inhabitants, followed by China with just under 1.1 billion, Nigeria with 733 million, the United States with 434 million, and Pakistan with 403 million inhabitants, the report said.

In 2019, around 40 per cent of the world’s population lives in intermediate-fertility countries, where women have on average between 2.1 and four births over a lifetime. Average lifetime fertility of 2.1 live births per woman is roughly the level required for populations with low mortality to have a growth rate of zero in the long run. Intermediate-fertility countries are found in many regions, with the largest being India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico, the Philippines and Egypt. In 2050, it is expected that slightly less than 30 per cent of the world’s population.


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