PMLN Is Not Confused. Silence By Shehbaz Sharif Is A Strategy
Farrukh Abbasi argues that PMLN is not confused over its relations with the military establishment, as some suggest. The silence from a certain group in the party when it comes to military is because of the fact that the party wants some of its members including Shehbaz Sharif to have friendly relations with GHQ, even if it means angering the workers.
Malik Muhammad Ahmad Khan demanded the resignation of National Accountability Bureau (NAB) Chairman Justice ® Javed Iqbal but Pakistan Muslim League N (PMLN) President Shehbaz Sharif issued a statement clarifying that Malik Ahmad’s statement is not party policy.
People are getting bored of the confusion with which PMLN reps are responding to the ongoing developments. Some senior political analysts say that the party is going through a tug of war between the ‘Model Town Camp’ and the ‘Raiwand Camp’.
Why does the party constantly fail to take a single narrative? Why are there two camps?
Why haven’t 23 MNAs and about 75 MPAs ever visited Nawaz Sharif in jail? Is the party broken for good?
From the day of Mian Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification, PMLN appears to be a confused party which is directly confusing its workers. When a bond portfolio manager creates a portfolio, he/she tries to spread out the days on which coupons are paid back, and also spreads the end or maturity of the bonds.
For every investment, the portfolio manager looks at different events in future and tries to generate fund cash flows accordingly. This strategy is commonly known as the laddered strategy which complicates the composition of the portfolio but addresses different goals according to the requirements in different times of future. This strategy aims to create the composition of several strategies to achieve different goals at different times and receive a net benefit in the long term.
What PMLN is doing right now is no different. For the worst-case scenario, it has around two dozen members of National Assembly who can become a part of a new system alongside a very unlikely Sharif family member who is often at the forefront of the management of businesses of Sharif family. For an in-house change, the Shehbaz Sharif group is always available to the establishment.
The long-term strategy of PMLN is to create space for the second generation of Sharif family. Though, people may not agree with me on this but Maryam Nawaz Sharif is looking at least 10 years to lead the party. Mian Nawaz Sharif, known for his silence, has carefully evaluated all the dynamics of the current political scenario and noticed that several leaders of PMLN, especially the elders would not accept Maryam Nawaz Sharif as their leader.
He knows that deep down, people like Rana Tanveer, Khawaja Saad Rafique, Rohail Asghar and many others feel like Chaudhary Nisar but are afraid to say anything yet.
To counter this issue, Mian Nawaz Sharif has advised Maryam Nawaz to have her own team and group, which mostly includes the second generation of current MNAs and PMLN stalwarts. There is a group of rooks getting ready to slowly takeover their fathers or mothers. This group will be a lot more supportive of Maryam Nawaz Sharif’s leadership and also be less hesitant to accept her as their leader. This group represents the anti-Khalai Makhlooq narrative for now because that is what most of the workers of PMLN want the party to take on.
However, the real decision makers of PMLN are moving on the chessboard in an L shape like the knights. Call them Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Khawaja Asif etc. These leaders, when with workers of PMLN, are as aggressive as the rooks but are calm and slow and compromising where things actually matter.
The short term advantage of using this complex and confused image is behind the practical idea that every political party in Pakistan never closes all of its doors with the military establishment.
It is very essential for all politicians in Pakistan to be able to communicate and be on talking terms with the establishment. So, some parties naturally have a few elements that always take the side that will keep Pindi happy. This allows for a good impression in Aabpara which helps shape the opinion in barracks all over Pakistan.
Shehbaz Sharif’s soft corner for the military is due to this necessity of staying in the good books of Pindi. Pindi is a place that supposedly ended his brother’s parliamentary political career, and allegedly removed him from office thrice, and also shut down his voice.
The necessity of being in good books of Pindi is so important to the Sharif family that they are sacrificing Shehbaz Sharif’s image around workers for it. All over Pakistan, the Shehbaz Sharif who once loved reading Habib Jalib’s ‘Mein nahi Maanta’ is widely known as Pindi’s next in line for the throne.
So, PMLN is not confused. It is intentionally using a multi- tier laddered strategy to achieve differed short and long term goals and keep the party going.