Reality Matrix – Pakistan’s Preparations for a Possible War with India
In this article, Brig (r) Mahmood Sadiq explains Pakistan’s military consolidation post Mumbai Attacks and why India can’t rely on numbers alone when faced with a well-prepared and technically capable Pakistan army even in conventional war.
Preparations of Pakistan’s armed forces for a conventional conflict under nuclear umbrella in today’s environment in response to full or partial ‘cold start’ by India stands matured and tested from conception, planning, acquisition till its execution at strategic, operational and tactical tears in last one decade. Credit goes mainly to General Kyani’s professional part of the personality and over extended tenure as Chief of Army Staff. This professional approach continued through General Raheel’s time to date in terms of training, maturing, perfection and acquisition of capability to respond such threat if manifested. In case of a conventional conflict between India and Pakistan, strategic and operational tiers are likely to be less relevant while tactical brilliance at multiple places when accumulated and seen through the prism of information domination shall decide the success or failure or an overall victor.
Shooting down of two Indian aircrafts on Wednesday morning is a small manifestation of this devastating capability with air force. Such capability with other services and its synchronization in unconventional and nuclear domains once coupled with already demonstrated ‘will to use for maximum effects’ will prove a nightmare for India
It may be painful for India but reality is that shortfalls of Pakistan’s preparations and readiness against any form of cold start in the domain of time constraints for mobilization, mobility, fire power and air defence were identified post Mumbai attacks and stand rectified in last ten decade or so. For instance, capability of Pakistani armed forces, especially army and air force in fire power domain is beyond Indian perception in its intensity as well as effects and will be known for its devastation in reality only when it gets manifested.
Shooting down of two Indian aircrafts on Wednesday morning is a small manifestation of this devastating capability with air force. Such capability with other services and its synchronization in unconventional and nuclear domains once coupled with already demonstrated ‘will to use for maximum effects’ will prove a nightmare for India if it attempts to find the real impact through a conventional conflict. Such conventional capability indirectly reinforces the credibility of our nuclear deterrence.
Confidence displayed by ISPR DG in his response statement on Tuesday is in fact a vivid manifestation of Pakistan’s preparation in nuclear and unconventional domains. This confidence is based on a technical capability in this realm which have passed through stages of test and trials including training and precision as well as stealthiness and unconventionality. Pakistan is technically, intellectually and mentally capable of averting a conventional conflict with its nuclear deterrence which speaks of its preparations, technical advancement, perfection and preparedness in nuclear domain and can be seen even in the confidence and body language of ISPR DG.
Fact remains that we can respond to an aggression but we cannot stop its initiation as a result of Modi’s madness generated by his party’s domestic political down trend while elections in India are at doorstep. Global powers need to play their role far more than what is being done so far.
However, a conventional conflict in the presence of credible nuclear deterrence is a worst case scenario which must be avoided at all costs in view of devastating and long term effects and impact of any conventional conflict between India and Pakistan. Ideally, Pakistan must never allow its nuclear deterrence to be discredited, undermined or lowered even once. Let’s retain this domination of escalation ladder while in shortest possible time we must reduce the tension.
Fact remains that we can respond to an aggression but we cannot stop its initiation as a result of Modi’s madness generated by his party’s domestic political down trend while elections in India are at doorstep. Global powers need to play their role far more than what is being done so far. This is the fastest and most effective or guaranteed method which is historically tested and need of the time before India attains next ladder of escalation.
Synchronized diplomatic maneuvers duly reinforced by reality of last 72 hours coupled with informational pillar of Pakistan building world public opinion in Pakistan’s favour on war footings to exert desired pressure on India. Media, both social and electronic, need to play its role rising above sensations. Measured, calculated and calibrated response in kinetic domain in the umbrella of our credible nuclear deterrence shall play important role till the time this escalation gets lowered.
The writer is a PhD scholar with diverse experience and international exposure. He possesses conscious knowledge about phenomenon of terrorism and extremism coupled with realistic understanding of geo political, social and security environment