PTI government and two major opposition parties—PPP and PMLN—reached an agreement to pass the bill to amend the Army Act in order to give three years extension to COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa.
Pakistan hardly witnesses such unanimity on political issues. Disagreement between government and opposition is norm in our political culture. Parliamentary consensus is rare development, which should be commended.
But there is a problem: This consensus has been reached in an unusual political environment, in which, normally speaking, consensus between conflicting political groups is not a possibility.
Here is a brief summary of what the political situation is: The two major opposition parties have been under tremendous pressure from the state machinery on account of the one-sided accountability drive that has put the top leaders of both the opposition parties in jail.
Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and former President Asif Ali Zardari are victim of court verdict and highhanded prosecution by the state machinery respectively, whose partiality has been brought into doubt by public revelations of scandalous nature. Prime Minister Imran Khan, who is a beneficiary of this one-sided accountability drive, is the most enthusiastic supporter of prosecution of Nawaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari at the hands of this biased state machinery.
Adding to political tensions are such cases of victimizations of opposition parliamentarians, which have made a mockery of law and accountability drive. These cases of victimization have taken place at the hands of those institutions of the state which are under the control of the military—a military, which is going an extra mile to back the PTI government—and these cases has been described as political victimization by none other than the superior courts of the country.
How is it possible in such a tense political environment that government and opposition reach a consensus to amend the Army Act without any prolonged negotiations? No protracted sessions of negotiations were witnessed and no give and take between the opposition and government was revealed. It was just a courtesy call that the government delegation made on the opposition leaders and as a result extracted the promise of the opposition that they would support the proposed bill that would give a three years extension to General Bajwa, whose services otherwise would be terminated in six months.
So it is the opposition, which will make possible the passage of the bill.
Is there a change in the political environment, which made this consensus possible? No, political environment remains tense. Has the government conceded to some of the demands of the opposition parties? Apparently, government has facilitated Nawaz Sharif to proceed abroad for treatment and didn’t strongly oppose the bail application of former President Asif Ali Zardari on health grounds. But this is not enough reason for the opposition to support government legislation on General Bajwa’s extension.
What exactly led the opposition to timidly and smoothly pave the way for all their parliamentary parties’ to support the legislation? Two theories are doing the rounds in Islamabad.
a) Army coerced the opposition parties into supporting the legislation: Army’s intelligence agencies have a history of arm-twisting the political leaders in supporting their army chiefs on crucial national issues. This coercion usually remains hidden from public eyes. In the recent past this coercion was witnessed when military led intelligence services coerced majority of the PMLN parliamentarians to switch sides and joined the PMLQ led by Chaudhry brothers after the departure of Nawaz Sharif for Saudi Arabia as part of the deal with the military government in year 2000. At that time the military intelligence agencies were supporting a military ruler and his government to remain in power in the face of a very timid opposition. Even this time, as the theory goes, the military led intelligence agencies are coercing a very timid and tamed opposition to support a legislation that would prolong the tenure of army chief and the government he backs.
b) Second theory says that the military and its political arm, the intelligence services, have coaxed the opposition parties into supporting the legislation in return for a breathing space to the opposition leaders who has been under tremendous pressure from the accountability drive or a witch hunt by the state machinery. In the recent past, military has been involved in backchannel negotiations and discussions with the opposition parties since the coming into power of Imran Khan government. There is a possibility that military authorities have assured the opposition leaders that they would be given a breathing space against the accountability drive in the days and months to come. There is no doubt in the fact that the military has the political capacity to convince and coax these opposition leaders into following a particular political path.
Either of these theories is true and this is supported by the fact that the government had absolutely nothing to do to convince the opposition parties to support the legislation. They only had to make courtesy calls on the opposition leaders in their chambers in the parliament: as if they are just waiting for the government delegation to announce their support. There is a possibility that the military and its intelligence agencies used a mix of carrot and stick to convince the opposition parties. But some kind of contact between the opposition parties and military authorities is must to explain this swift change of heart in the opposition’s attitude towards government-sponsored legislation.
How will this forced consensus shape the future political scenario of the country? I think the accountability drive will now exist in a much diluted form. But immediate change of government is not a possibility, given the absolutely botched performance of PTI government the opposition parties will like to see government collapse on its own rather than forced out of power.
However a change in the attitude of military top brass towards their favorites is an expected outcome of this episode. Most of the experts of civil-military relations—both Pakistani and International—are of the opinion that Pakistan Army is one of those land forces in the world which guards its internal affairs—matters like posting, transfers and appointments—from outside interference.
This means that they don’t allow any outside political authority to dictate to them in terms of posting, transfers and appointments, which they take as their internal affairs. Experts cite Nawaz Sharif’s interference in the internal affairs of the army in 1999 as the major factor, which led to a military coup in October 1999.
The Supreme Court verdict in Bajwa extension case somewhat had a similar impact on the situation. It created a potential situation in which internal affairs of the army could be interfered with by outside authorities. This explains the harsh reaction of the military towards courts after Musharraf’s death sentence. It is generally believed that the Supreme Court verdict in extension case was an outcome of the ineptness of the PTI government. One may agree or disagree with this assertion but there is no denying the fact that army finds itself in a situation where it cannot trust anyone or rely on the office of any outside authority. Army will have to make use of its capacity to coerce or coax outside actors into submission.