Throughout the last few years, I rejected the term Afghan-led & Afghan-owned to end the war in Afghanistan. I always preferred that the first phase should be termed as Region-led and Afghan-owned. Alhamdulillah, that stance was vindicated on February 29th when force withdrawal agreement, not a peace treaty, was signed between US-Taliban with no involvement of the Kabul administration. The agreement had full support from the regional countries Pakistan, Russia, China, and Qatar. The ceremony was attended by diplomats from 50 countries.
Interestingly when the US Secretary of State was in Doha to witness the signing, the Defense Secretary and NATO Secretary-General were in Kabul issuing joint declaration with Kabul administration. The message was that although America recognizes the Taliban as a political reality they stand with Kabul administration that was installed by them. It is yet to be seen whether Americans are serious about departing from Afghanistan or it is just a political stunt by the Trump administration to win four more years in the November presidential elections. This is understandable but now the second phase of this process should transition from Region-Led to Afghan-led & Afghan-owned. The success of this second phase will decide whether American forces prolong their stay or completely withdraw.
I have been furnishing foreign policy advice to planners for the past many years. I think it is about time some of that advice related to Afghanistan should be shared publicly to gain support for it. The next phase should be Afghan-led but that does not mean that advice should not be given to our neighbors. Although they should be given the choice to accept or reject a piece of advice to exercise their sovereign right.
I had proposed that once the force withdrawal agreement is signed then the Afghan Taliban should be allowed to establish a main administrative office at Jalalabad as well as a representative office in Kabul. The process can only be truly Afghan-led and Afghan-owned when intra-Afghan dialogue happens inside Afghanistan. This will also be a test of all sides to show respect to each other and ensure mutual security. This will help develop mutual trust which is an important foundation for building a nation. International observes appointed by the UN as well SCO and OIC should represent the international community. International summits should also be arranged but their focus should be to provide reconstruction support.
An interim guardian council of no more than 35 people should be established comprising of 18 members from the Taliban and 17 from all other factions including women. This guardian council should lead the writing of a new constitution as well as appoint an interim government. Governors for Pashtun majority provinces should be appointed by the Afghan Taliban while other parties should appoint governors for the remaining provinces. A plan should be devised to induct Afghan Taliban foot soldiers in the police force and the Afghan National army.
Building the Afghan economy should be key to ensuring the emergence of a viable state. Reconstruction Opportunity Zones (ROZ), that was proposed by President Bush, should be developed near Af-Pak border areas which will help create employment and provide revenue to the state. Pakistan should sign security, trade, and social development agreements with them. Pakistani doctors, engineers, professors, and civic organizations should also play their role in helping rebuild Afghanistan.
I am confident that Afghans will be able to sort out their differences and develop a sovereign, independent, and progressive state. Taliban have expressed their eagerness to be different from their past. It is now incumbent upon them to prove it and their failure to live up to the expectation will not only damage their standing but also continue the chaos and misery of the Afghan nation. Americans are still not fully committed to departing. Factionalism and the inability to remove differences will provide them a reason to extend their stay which will be detrimental to the whole region.